"If what this website is true, if we are likely to be hit with a Bird Flu pandemic, what news should we listen out for..?"

So far, every case of Bird Flu has been bird-to-bird or bird-to-human. The bad news will be when cases are identified that suggest that the mutation has occurred enabling the virus to infect human-to-human. Then it will spread quickly.
My best guess at the moment is that this will involve the "Fujian strain" of the virus which has already mutated in China so as to be unaffected by our current vaccines...
Keep an eye on the following two websites:
World Health Organisation: Epidemic and Pandemic Alert and Response
Includes updated "Confirmed Human Cases of Avian Influenza A(H5N1) " (has a vey good FAQs page)
And constantly updated "Disease Outbreak News"

"Isn't this all scaremongering? Aren't you just scaring people unnecessarily?"

When people asked this in 2005, or even in early 2006, I had to admit that these conclusions were mostly just mine - and based on reading some very technical stuff and making my own interpretations. However, things have changed. What were the worst estimates of casualties (750,000 in the UK alone) are now being agreed by the most senior government figures (eg Sir Liam Donaldson, the Chief Scientific Advisor).
See the page What The Experts Say

"Even though the Spanish Flu of 1918 was bad, we are all so much healthier now. Flu pandemics really aren't that dangerous to us now, are they?"

Usually this is true. However, the unusual thing about H5N1 is that it affects us differently to other strains of the influenza virus. Strains of flu with the N1 variation over-stimulate our immune response, and it is the over-stimulation that becomes the problem.
So the healthier a person is, the more developed their immune system, the more likely they are to be badly affected by Bird Flu. This is what happened in 1918 - young, healthy adults were more badly affected than babies or the elderly.
See the page Cytokine Storm

"We managed to stop SARS a while back. Surely we can quarantine any outbreak of Bird Flu, develop new vaccines and new drugs - and keep it under control..?"

The transmission of SARS and flu are very different. SARS is a virus that is spread by direct contact or by respiratory secretions, but flu spreads through airborne micro-droplets of virus that can live a long time outside of the body. To put it very crudely, this means that if someone with SARS sneezes, they might infect someone in the same room. But if someone with flu sneezes they might infect someone in a different room, or someone who enters later.
In addition, the maximum viral load in an infected individual did not develop for up to 10 days after infection with SARS - that is, after victims were visibly ill. It is not therefore easily transmitted - in fact, studies suggested that over 80% of sufferers did not pass on the infection to anyone else. With flu, the infection develops rapidly and individuals are passing on the virus within a few days if not hours.
" In comparison with other infectious diseases that are spread via the respiratory route (i.e., influenza), SARS seems therefore moderately transmissible. The SARS virus is not easily transmissible outside of certain settings." See www.sarsreference.com
In contrast, flu still does the rounds every year and kills a lot of people every winter. If we knew how to stop flu we would have done it a long ago.

"It has been a long time since there was last a worldwide flu pandemic - there was 1968 and 1957 and 1918 - why should there be one now...?"

Records show that influenza epidemics have probably occurred 3 or 4 times every century. After each, the survivors have built up a resistance (immunity) so that strain dies away. But after a long period without the virus being endemic, the level of immunity drops, a new strain of virus develops, and a new pandemic arises. We have now had nearly 40 years since the last (Hong Kong flu) pandemic, so worldwide immunity has dropped - and a new pandemic is long overdue. This is a natural cycle, but the problem this time is that it is H5N1 that has evolved to be the new strain that is likely to do the rounds. And H5N1 is particularly nasty...

"If we are all well-fed, healthy and vaccinated, there won't be much danger to us, surely?"

Usually that is the case. However, the unusual thing about H5N1 is that it affects us differently to other strains of the influenza virus. It over-stimulates our immune response, and it is that over-stimulation that becomes the problem. So the healthier a person is, the more developed their immune system, the more likely they are to be badly affected by Bird Flu. And sorry, but there isn't any vaccine against the new strain of H5N1 yet. The really dangerous strain that will infect human-to-human hasn't evolved yet, and after it does it will spread like wildfire - whilst it will take us at least six months to develop a vaccine, let alone mass produce it.

"Why do you insist that fit and healthy adults are most likely to succumb to H5N1 infections? Surely it is the very young and very old who are most at risk from flu?"

It has the same cause - the way that H5N1 kills us by over-stimulating our immune systems. The young, fittest adults usually have the strongest immune systems, so they get affected worst. This is what happened in 1918 - young, healthy adults were more badly affected than babies or the elderly. And that is what is likely to happen again...
See the page Cytokine Storm

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